Casas Adobes, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

238
FXUS65 KTWC 141000
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 AM MST Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures for the next week will generally be
near to below normal for mid-May. A storm system moving to our
north across the Great Basin will result in breezy to windy
southwest to west winds today. Less wind on Thursday and Friday
and then a return to breezy conditions over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed mainly mid to
high level cloud cover overspreading the area under SW flow aloft.
These clouds will hang around much of this morning before
gradually pushing to the E-SE this afternoon. Water vapor imagery
showed that the upper level trof that brought gusty winds to the
area over the past two days extended from wrn MT S/SW to SE CA.
This system will continue to move east today keeping tight
pressure gradient across the area for gusty W/SW winds this
afternoon. Critical to near critical fire weather conditions this
afternoon with Red Flag Warning in effect east of Tucson. The
gusty winds will also produce areas of blowing dust, especially
across the eastern half of Cochise county. Highs today 3 to 8
degrees cooler than Tuesday, or 4 to 10 degrees below normal.

Thursday and Friday: Under dry southwest flow aloft high
temperatures will be warmer but remain 2 to 6 degrees below
normal. Winds will show typical afternoon breezes.

This weekend: Another dry weather system enter the areas bringing
another round of gusty southwest winds and near critical to
critical fire weather conditions. Cooler high temperatures,
especially on Sunday where highs will run 6 t0 12 degrees below
normal.

Monday and Tuesday: Warmer temperatures, but still below normal,
with much less wind.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/12Z.
BKN-SCT clouds AOA 15k ft AGL will gradually decrease from west
to east during the valid pd. SFC winds less than 12 kts bcmg
SWLY/WLY 12-22 kts and gusts 25-35 kts aft 14/17z. SFC winds
diminishing to less than 12 kts after 15/03z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A storm system will move across the Great Basin,
bringing another round of strong and gusty southwest to west
winds today. This will result in critical fire weather conditions
across far eastern areas this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect today from 10 am MST to 7 PM MST for most of Fire Weather
Zone 152 and eastern portions of Fire Weather Zone 151 and 154.

Otherwise, above normal high temperatures this afternoon will lower
to 5-10 degrees below normal today. Temperatures rebound to
seasonable levels Friday and Saturday. Typical afternoon breezes
Thursday and Friday for much of southeast Arizona, with breezy
conditions persisting across eastern areas. Increasing wind speeds
are expected over the upcoming weekend as another storm system
moves to our north. Near critical to critical fire weather
conditions are expected both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this
  evening for AZZ151-152-154.

&&

$$

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